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investment ideas

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investment ideas

Postby manarak » 29 May 2011, 14:42 •  [Post 1]

What does the monger need?

CASH!!!

In today's financial world, interest rates are often zero or close to that figure, except for Australian Dollar which yields about 4,5% but one has then to take the currency risk.

I sense an opportunity in the EUR.
It has been badly hit again in the last days.

There are some high yield stocks in the EURO area, for example France Telecom.
since 2009, this stock has been yielding a steady approx. 8.5% and the price remained stable.
The symbol is FTE on NYSE, but I feel it could be even better to buy it in EUR, when all the currency woes will be priced in.

Another interesting high yield stock is Telecom Corp of New Zealand, symbol NZT.

And am I the only one to think that global communications cannot go (very) wrong?
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Re: investment ideas

Postby Jake » 29 May 2011, 16:45 •  [Post 2]

I'm not sold on Euro long term because of so many countries draining it down so while the investment in euro might be good, what happens when you want to take money out of it and the euro is lower than now?

Have you thought of that? But I guess you take that gamble with any currency if its not the currency that you use where you live.
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Re: investment ideas

Postby manarak » 29 May 2011, 21:29 •  [Post 3]

Jake wrote:I'm not sold on Euro long term because of so many countries draining it down so while the investment in euro might be good, what happens when you want to take money out of it and the euro is lower than now?

Have you thought of that? But I guess you take that gamble with any currency if its not the currency that you use where you live.


Yes, true - I consider myself a Swiss Franc based investor, so what I am banking on is that the EURO will regain strength in the medium term (3-4 years).

From my point of view it is unlikely that the Swiss Franc will remain so high vs. EUR.
Agreed, the EUR is currently sliding down, but when the problems of the weaker EUR economies will be priced in - or otherwise solved somehow, for example by giving the boot to Greece, Portugal, Spain and Ireland - it will be a great investment.

The EUR is likely to regain 20 to 30% then, and with a dividend yielding stock I will then have bought a good revenue source, quite cheaply, in addition to the currency capital gain and the probably gain in stock price over time.


From the perspective of a US investor, the benefit is not so clear, since the USD too has been badly damaged, and if USD and EUR regain strength later at the same pace, you won't feel any currency capital gain.
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Re: investment ideas

Postby manarak » 30 May 2011, 01:01 •  [Post 4]

here is an article about investment in dividend yield:
http://www.fool.com/school/dowinvesting ... esting.htm
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Re: investment ideas

Postby Malakor » 31 May 2011, 18:06 •  [Post 5]

manarak wrote:here is an article about investment in dividend yield:
http://www.fool.com/school/dowinvesting ... esting.htm



Interesting you should mention MF as I subscribe to this new service:

https://www.fool.co.uk/shop/secure/orde ... chs0000002

Working well so far, especially as I managed to buy during the dip last March. As my capital is somewhat diminished these days, I have decided to do the whole lot using CFDs to turbocharge my returns.
'Fools rush in where angels fear to tread' - TiT
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Re: investment ideas

Postby manarak » 31 May 2011, 18:11 •  [Post 6]

Malakor wrote:
manarak wrote:here is an article about investment in dividend yield:
http://www.fool.com/school/dowinvesting ... esting.htm



Interesting you should mention MF as I subscribe to this new service:

https://www.fool.co.uk/shop/secure/orde ... chs0000002

Working well so far, especially as I managed to buy during the dip last March. As my capital is somewhat diminished these days, I have decided to do the whole lot using CFDs to turbocharge my returns.


err... be careful, I don't think CFDs carry dividends
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Re: investment ideas

Postby Jake » 03 Jun 2011, 15:49 •  [Post 7]

Interesting news this morning about Goldman Sachs.. they're under investigation again for "allegedly" offloading toxic stocks onto unknowing investors.. :shock:
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Re: investment ideas

Postby Malakor » 03 Jun 2011, 17:07 •  [Post 8]

manarak wrote:err... be careful, I don't think CFDs carry dividends


You still get divis - but you don't with futures as it's already factored into the price. I'm tempted to short gold as I've heard it may fall to around $1000 before long. As Soros has already dumped his holdings, and now Gartman, this may well turn out to be true.
'Fools rush in where angels fear to tread' - TiT
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Re: investment ideas

Postby manarak » 03 Jun 2011, 20:59 •  [Post 9]

Malakor wrote:
manarak wrote:err... be careful, I don't think CFDs carry dividends


You still get divis - but you don't with futures as it's already factored into the price. I'm tempted to short gold as I've heard it may fall to around $1000 before long. As Soros has already dumped his holdings, and now Gartman, this may well turn out to be true.


You will be right with that at some point or another. Timing is everything.
As soon as US economy picks up some momentum again, Gold prices in USD will fall.
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Re: investment ideas

Postby Jake » 07 Jun 2011, 00:50 •  [Post 10]

One of my thai neighbors made a statement the other day that I thought on the surface was ridiculous.

He said the USD is at 30 to the baht because of the government. If the government didn't interfere it would be at 10 baht.

However true it might be.. the USD is still the defacto currency in the world. Lots of people travel to thailand and they probably cannot get the thai's to buy their own currency for example paki rupee, iran dinar, philippine peso, and whatever you can think of. Thai's will readily buy GBP, EUR, CHF, CND, AUD and JPY but the bulk of exchange has to be in USD. If the USD falls to 10 baht.. all the beaches, sex trade and other stuff would collapse due to lack of demand. How many tourist would flock to Thailand?

So although he maybe right.. the Thai's have a lot of interest keeping other currencies reasonably high even if theirs are doing well.

Opinions?
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Re: investment ideas

Postby manarak » 07 Jun 2011, 01:51 •  [Post 11]

yes, Thailand as well as China and other exporting countries benefit from a strong dollar (Tourism is about 6% of the economy, so tourism is not the reason).

BUT: they are all powerless to stop the erosion of the value of the USD vs. the Asian currencies.
The reason is the US are creating money to pay the interest of their debt, and the other reason is that there are gazillions of dollars and just a handful of bahts.
You can't stop one million soldiers armed with slings with just one top of the line A1M1 Abrams MBT.

I say the financial crisis was beneficial to the US dollar, because so many dollars were destroyed by the crash of the markets. Thank god.

The USD is also losing ground every year in international trade. Other currencies, the EUR ahead, is replacing the dollar, although the weak EUR (still worth 1.44 USD) has cast doubts.

Even if the USD regains strength in value, its importance in the world is bound to decrease even more.

The Rouble and the Yuan will strengthen in their respective spheres.
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Re: investment ideas

Postby pandemonium » 07 Jun 2011, 02:02 •  [Post 12]

when will the pound pick up again??
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Re: investment ideas

Postby Malakor » 08 Jun 2011, 17:08 •  [Post 13]

Like the UK pound, the falling dollar should be good for US exports. I can't really complain that sterling is so depressed as all my UK stocks and funds have done very well due to this fact as much of their revenue comes from overseas.
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